Rodeo, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS66 KMTR 050501
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1001 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

Strong north winds are expected to develop over the North Bay
Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills tonight into tomorrow
morning. A Wind Advisory will go into effect for those areas at 9
PM PDT tonight and remain in effect through 2 PM PDT Monday with
winds diminishing through the remainder of Monday. Pleasant warm,
dry weather will continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

Clear skies across the region, with the gusty north winds
developing in the interior mountains of the North Bay and East
Bay, where a Wind Advisory has just come into effect. The PGE
station on Mount St Helena had reported a gust of 58 mph, with
other stations on the ridgelines in Sonoma and Napa Counties
reporting gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Observations across
interior Napa County and the ridgelines of eastern Sonoma County
are reporting relative humidities around 20-25 percent, with the
dry air expected to spread across the interior North and East Bay
through the night.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

Key Messages:
- Wind Advisory in effect from 9 PM PDT tonight through 2 PM PDT
Monday for the interior North Bay mountains and East Bay Hills
- Sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph

A cut-off low continues to progress southwards through Southern CA
while ridging/high pressure builds offshore. The cut-off low will
deepen as it digs southward along the Arizona/Southern CA border and
force the incoming ridge of high pressure to become positively
tilted (top of the ridge tilted over Northern CA, bottom of the
ridge located offshore). This setup is favorable for producing
offshore winds across our area. Dynamically speaking, winds flow
from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure. The
orientation of high pressure over northern CA and low pressure over
southern CA would support winds moving from north to south. The
strongest support for these winds is in the lower levels of the
atmosphere with a small jet streak over the North Bay/East Bay areas
at 950mb and 850mb. The narrowness of the jet streak will help keep
the windiest conditions confined to the North Bay Interior Mountains
and East Bay Hills. The surface KSFO-KWMC pressure gradient switches
from weakly positive (onshore) to weakly negative (offshore) by late
this afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will then strengthen
(becoming more negative/strongly offshore) as we head through the
evening and into the overnight hours. Winds will peak late this
evening through tomorrow morning with a Wind Advisory in place from
9PM PDT Sunday through 2 PM PDT Monday. Sustained winds are expected
to be between 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Stronger gusts
may develop across the highest peaks and ridges (e.g. probabilistic
NBM guidance shows a 10% chance of Mt. St. Helena gusting above 70
mph).

As upper level ridging builds today, a warmer and drier air mass is
reaching the Bay Area/Central Coast. This drier air mass
additionally has caused RH values across the interior to drop into
the 30-40% range today and temperatures to warm to more seasonal
values in the 60s (coast) to 70s (inland). Temperatures will peak in
the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior tomorrow and mid 60s to
mid 70s closer to the coast. The introduction of strong offshore
winds tonight will further dry conditions across the North Bay
Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. Overnight humidity recoveries
Sunday into Monday will be poor there with values peaking in the 25-
45% range. RH values will continue to deteriorate during the day on
Monday with RH values dropping into the upper teens to low 30s.
Fuels are still moist enough to help alleviate fire weather concerns
tonight into Monday but make sure to obey all guidance from local
officials in relation to burning outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

Offshore winds will ease by Monday night as the pressure gradient
begins to weaken. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will
continue to dominate over the West Coast through the remainder of
the work week. This will allow warmer and drier conditions to
persist through next weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the
upper 70s to 80s across the interior this week with Friday and
Saturday looking to be the warmest days. The favored hot spots of
interior Monterey/San Benito County and Contra Costa County (Byron)
will reach the upper 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. Daytime
conditions will remain dry but overnight recoveries will improve
Tuesday through the end of the week as the marine layer deepens to
around 1000-1500 feet. Winds remain light and onshore for much of
this week with diurnally breezy winds expected along the coast and
mountain gaps/passes. The weather looks fairly pleasant this week so
make sure to take advantage of it and get outside if you are able
to.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

VFR through the TAF period for all but HAF which will have reduced
visibilities from sea spray (noted as HZ). Surface winds have
reduced, however winds aloft stay strong and turn more north and
northeasterly into the night, leading to LLWS. LLWS looks to
affect the more northern terminals, and will be much weaker to the
south. These LLWS concerns ease into mid Monday morning as
surface winds begin to match the aloft winds: gaining strength and
turning northerly. Winds look to remain northern and breezy into
Monday afternoon but turn more westerly for the second half of the
day. Expect winds to become light across the region into Monday
night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. The gusty winds
are reducing and becoming moderate, but stronger more northerly
winds aloft will lead to LLWS concerns through the mid morning.
Surface winds increase and turn northerly in the mid morning but
look to turn more northwesterly in the mid afternoon before
reducing and turning west into Monday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds look
to be light through the night. MRY`s early morning winds look to
be variable while models point to more northerly winds for SNS.
Winds will become more westerly and northwesterly further into
Monday. These winds become light once again into Monday night

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 951 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

Widespread gale conditions remain due to strong gusty north to
northwest winds, which are accompanied by widespread rough seas.
Winds diminish and seas reduce into the upcoming work week, but
breezy winds and moderate seas remain hazardous for small craft
through the first half of the work week. Mariners are encouraged
to check the latest conditions before departing port or harbor.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 535 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Monday
morning for the Monterey County coastline, where breaking waves of
15 to 20 feet are expected with the highest waves reaching 28
feet in favored locations. Elevated surf is also expected along
west and northwest facing beaches towards the north, but with a
slightly shorter period in this region, confidence in hazardous
conditions is somewhat lower. Additionally, gusty winds will cause
blowing and shifting sand, as well as increase sea spray, which
can complicate water rescues due to reduced visibilities.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for CAZ504-515.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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